During the broadcast of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) across the world, many mathematicians made several mathematical models to understand the forecast and behavior of this epidemic’s spread accurately. Nevertheless, due to the lack of much information about it, the application of many models has become difficult and sometimes impossible, unlike the simple SIR model. In this study, we proposed a new SIRD model for COVID-19. The SIRD model is fitted to real data of COVID-19 patients in Egypt using the R program. The sample consists of all patients in the susceptible state, infectious state, removed state, and death state. The purpose of this study is to give a prediction of the epidemic peak and size in our country. The results of this study are an indicator of the widespread spread of COVID-19 in Egypt. |
