Analytical Study Of The Agricultural Policy Impact On The Size Of Food Gap In Egypt:

This study applied an econometric techniqdcto measure the impact of the various agricultural policies on food Gap change in Egypt. Agriculture occupies a vital role in the Egyptian econ-omy and it will continue to be of a major importance for many coming decades. Egyptian economic policies have been subject to a number of changes during the last three decades. Many of these policies have remained uneffecttre and have cont-inued to impact the Egyptian economy up to the present time. Food gap is considered one of the most important negative results of these policies.Agricultural policy plays a major role in the Agric. sector. It has its direct effect on production, consumption,and pricing system. any agricultural policies have been implemented through the last three decades. They have taken remedial steps to reduce or even eliminate the food gap and its undesirable effect. The ultimate goal of this study is to investigate the food gap through the period 1965-1991. Econordc policies and factors affecting the food gap were under investigation.The study is coverd in five chapters. The first cha-pter deals with the most important factors affecting the agrocultural production and consumption in Egypt.Results obtained from the first chapter showed an increasing rate of the food gap,this is mainly due to the agriculturalteroano-micspolicies during the period 1965-1991. The results also indicated that the total imports had been increased to sati-sfy the national needs of food requirements.value of food imports varied between %50 and %100 of the total Egyptian exports during the same period, in addition, incomemultiplier increased to 2.96.The second chapter investigated the economic factors effe-cting the agricultural production and food consumption in Egypt. Results obtained from this chapter indicated thatthe cropping area was found to be almost stable. Vertical develepment showed insignificant increase for agricultural productivity. Total loss of all crops showed an increas-ing rate. Estimated loss ranged between 5:10 - %14.3 for wheat and %2.9 - %4.3 for maize during the period 1965-1991. The study also indicated an insufficient investments allocatedLathe agricultural sector. Investments in the agriculture’ sector represents %12.2 of the total national invesments for the period 1980-1990. On the other hand food consumption was extremely affected by percapita income, consumption patt-ern, and subsidies policy.The third chapter was devoted to investigate the food gap through the last three decades. The effect of Agric.policies on food gap has been discussed in this chapter also.The fourth chapter investigared the economic policies and its effect on the food gap. Results showed a negat- ive effect of both foreign trade policies and subsidies policies. Pricing policies had also a negative effect on the allocation of cultivated areas for the production ofspecific crops. Production of non-traditional crops becamemore profitable than the strategic food crops. One can say that food gap was highly affected by the pricing policies.Chapter five was devoted to get some economic indica-tors. Agricultural policy analysis matrix simple market analysis and multimarket analysis were applied. The policy analysis matrix indicated that Nominal pr-otection coefficient of each of the output and input wheat, Laize, Sugar Can, Cotton Seeds has been found to be less than one during the three stages of the study period.Also effective protection coefficient has been foundto be less than one during the three stages of the study period, while the measured showed a strong comparative advantage in wheat, Laize sugar can, and cotton seeds production. The indicates has shown that there is an implicit tax on the producers and the consumer prices are subsidized. The main findings obtained in this study indicate the failure of the. Egyptian agricultural policy.As long as the policy analysis matrix cared only for the food supply analysis. The study cared for both”supp-ly and demand, Simple market analysis”, which showed same results, in addition to the possiblity of elemination of the food gap in the studied crops by inc-reasing the production and eleminating the consumption.The results of the multi market analysis has shown that the changes in policy analysis had resulted in eleminating the food gap.This study introduced some recommendations, such as, the tools of any policy have to be consistent with both the policy targets and the economic system of the society, more att-ention has to be given to the factors affecting the food gap specially those policies related to consumption, using an adequate price policies could create a serious social problems. Price policies have to be used with great care to avoid its negative impact on consumption and income.