An Economic Study Of The Impact Of Establishing The Arab Common Market On The Agricultural Sector In The Arab World:

The Arab countries as other economic clusters-areheading towards economic clustering in order to face the newglobal order and the rise of GATT. There were numerous kinds& shapes of Arab Economic integration the most important onewas the Arab common market agreement which did not showany effectiveness for more than forty years. The call for the Arabcommon market recreation was adopted by some Arab countriesin general, and Egypt in particular, as a commercial gateway forbalanced growth of national & regional development programs,and getting benefit of the advantages of globalization, besideslimiting its disadvantages.The importance of this study is bringing to light thepossibi lities and fundamentals of the Arab common market risein the Arab agriculture sector such as land, water investment,capital and human resource.s. Therefore, the recreation of idea ofthe Arab common market as a way for facing the internationaleconomic blocs and implementing sustainable integrateddevelopment in the Arab countries which is considered essentialissue.The problem of the study is represented in highlightingthe weakness of the inter-Arab trade which represent (8.4%) ofthe value of the aggregate Arab external trade; although therewere many Arab commercial agreements and availability of theresources needed to establish such market. It was seen that, theinter-Arab trade was focalized on a partner on two of the ArabCountries. Moreover, the agricultural sector can not fulfill theneeds of the Arab countries of food products and commodities.Therefore, the problem which the study deals with is concernedwith the fact that, the delay of establishing the expanded Arabcommon market causes the increase of Arab countriesdependency on external resources in covering its need ofagricultural commodities, and food commodities in particular.The study aims to investigate the possibility and availability ofresources needed to insure the establishment of the Arabcommon market, and estimate the expected effects ofestablishing such market on Arab agricultural sector. The studyconcentrates on the probable effects on the inter-Arabagricultural trade volume, Arab food production, consumptionand imports. The study Suggests some needed means toaccelerate the implementation of this market.The study used descriptive, statistical and analyticalmethods. The descriptive method was used to demonstrate thehistorical facts concerning the study. The quantities andstatistical Method was used for different data analysis. The studyused simple regression and multi-regression analysis inidentifying general time trends of the related economicphenomena developments. A model was designed for estimatingthe expected effects of establishing the common Arab market onthe Arab agricultural sector. This model is consisted of elevenequations for sequential estimation of the mo t importantagricultural commodities. Also, estimating the expected effect onArab production quantity of the most important agriculturalcommodities this model was designed to estimate the gains ofagricultural commodity exporting Arab countries in case ofestablishing the market and the loss of Arab agriculturalcommodity importing countries as a result of decreasing tarifffees in the field of agricultural commodities. Then, estimatingthe net gains and losses for Arab countries in the field ofagricultural commodities as a results of establishing Arabcommon market. A model for comparative advantage was usedto identify the comparative advantages for every Arab country infield of its most important agricultural commodities.The study dependent on different resources of datapublished in official and formal authorities such as Araborganization of Agricultural Development, (AOAD) ArabMonetary Fund (AMF) and the Social & Economic CouncilArab league, External Trade Bullitin, Arab Economic Reports(Arab Leagues), studies of secretariat-general of Arab economicunion. Data, brochures periodicals and journals of internationalorganizations and institutions such as Food and AgriculturalOrganization (FAO).The study contains five main sections preceded by anintroduction and ended with an appendix, an abstract andrecommendations.The first section contains two chapters covering thetheoretical framework and the article review. The first chapterdealt with studying theoretical framework which highlighted theconcepts of economic integration and its different kinds andshapes. The second chapter was about the article reviewconcerning the topic which the study is confronting. Most of theconcerned studies recommended activating and accelerating theArab economic integration and establishing the Arab commonmarket, as a way of facing the challenges of facing thechallenges of the new global economic order. Also, these studiesrecommended maximizing the inter Arab trade Volume andestablishing Joint Arab agricultural Projects to overcome theArab gap. The studies called for Arab economic aspectsneutralization aside from political actions. The second sectionwas concerned with studying international economic blocs andattempts and experiments of Arab economic integration. Thefirst chapter was interested in highlighting the existing forms ofglobal economic blocs and the related agreement such as GATTagreement, and its positive and negative effects on thedeveloping countries economics. This chapter highlighted themost important regional economic blocs and multinationals andtransnational. And dealt with the Arab economic integration.After establishing the Arab league there many bilateral andregional agreements. Three regional agreements were conductedthey are Gulf Countries Cooperation council and Arab westernunion besides some basic agreement such as the agreement offacilitating trade and organizing trade 1953, Arab Economicunity and establishing Arab economic union council 1957, thecommon Arab market agreement 1964, the agreement forfacilitating and developing commercial exchange among Arabcountries 1981. Also, there are agreements concerned withliberalizing current payments such as investing capitals in theArab countries 1980. Besides, the joint Arab projects andspecialized Arab organizations. The second chapter includedthe historical development of establishing the Arab commonmarket 1964 under the framework of the Economic UnionCouncil in order to achieve liberation in four areas: person andcapital movement liberation, commodity & products exchangeliberation and finally, liberalizing transport; transit” and usingtransportation means & using civil airports and harbors. Theexisting market includes seven countries under the scope of Arabeconomic union council, these countries are Egypt, Jordan,Syria, Iraq, Libya, Mauritania and Yemen. It is worth sayingthat, there are some Arab countries who refuse to j oint themarket for many reasons such as economic and political reasons.Finally, we should mention that, there are some positive effortsfor activating the establishment of the market such as theexecutive program of implementing the market regulations 1998and the declaration of the great Arab free trade zone startingfrom 1998 to be completed 2005. The third section discussedthe current agricultural economic indicators and agriculturalproduction in the Arab nation. The first chapter reviewed theArab economic resources which include unrenewed naturalresources such as petroleum, there is also the renewable naturalresources represented by land resources. It is important tomention that, the available land resources able to be used wasestimated with around 64.3 Million hectare. The water resourceswere 225.36 Milliard Cubia Meter of surface water, around39.19 Milliard Cubic Meter of underground water and finally, 9Milliard cubic Meter of untraditional water resources. The Arabnation population was estimated by 228.1 Million person in theyear 2001. The agricultural workforce reached 28.7 Millionlaborer for the average period (1997-2001).Examined the most important general indicators andcurrent status of the Arab economic structure, the study showedthat, the Arab countries GNP. The annual growth rate of theArab countries GNP reached 4.5% during the period (1990-2001). he Arab agricultural production was 79.3 Milliard dollarwith percentage of 11.2% of the total Arab GNP in the year200 1. The annual Arab agricultural production reached 3.4% forthe previous period.The second cha pter was concerned with representing themain features of the Arab agricultural production. In this chapter,the study dealt with highlighting the most important agriculturalcrops and food crops in the Arab nation and its developmentsduring the period (1990-200 I), the most important results wereas following:- The main food grain group: including (wheat, Barley,Com Maize and Rice) production increased and its annualgrowth rate reached 1.43% during the period (1990-2001). AndPotatoes: total production of the crop in Arab nation increasedby 1.72% for the period (1990-2001). And Legumes: the totalproduction increased and its annual growth rate was 0.11%during the mentioned period. And Oil crops: the totalproduction increased with annual growth rate 2.8 during thesame period. And Sugar crops: the total production increased byannual growth rate 0.32% for the same period. And Vegetablecrops: the Arab production of vegetable crops increased by2.11% as an annual growth rate for the period. And Fruit crops:the total production increased during the period (1990-200 1)with annual growth rate 2.18% in the Arab nation. And Fibercrops: the total production decreased with annual decrease rate(-1.48%) for the same period. And Red meat: the total Arabproduction increased during the period (1990-2001) with annualgrowth rate 4.29%. and Poultry meat: the total Arab productionof poultry- (white meat) increased during the period (1990-2001)with annual growth rate 5.03%. and Milk & its products: thtotal Arab production of milk and its products increased duringthe tested period (1990-2001) with annual growth rate 5%. AndEggs: the total Arab production of table eggs increased duringthe period (1990-2001) with annual growth rate 2.72%. andFish: the total Arab production of the fish production increasedduring the period (1990-2001) with annual growth rate 4.24%.By studying the changes emerged on the food gap of themost important commodities and food commodity groups, it isclarified that, the value of food gap increased from 11.7 Milliarddollar in the year 1990 to 12.9 Milliard dollar in the year 2001.The annual growth rate of the Arab food gap increased by 3.31%during the period (1990-2001). The fourth section discussed thecurrent status of aggregate foreign Arab trade, it focused on itsimportance, development, trends, commodity structure and itseconomic efficiency. This section included the study of inter-Arab agricultural commercial exchange. The first chapterstudied total and inter Arab trade and the following are the mostimportant results:The value of the aggregate Arab trade (exports -Imports)reached 300.3 Mill iard dollar for the average period (1990-2001). The aggregate Arab trade value represents 3.04% of theaggregate global trade for the same tested area (1990-2001) withvalue of 9861.2 Milliard dollar. The annual growth rate of totalArab trade reached 5.05% for the period The value of the Aggregate Inter-Arab Trade reached 25.56Milliard dollar for the average period (1990-2001). Theannual growth rate of total inter Arab trade reached 4.11%for the period (1990-2001). The second Chapter showed thevalue of the Aggregate Arab Agricultural Trade reached30.15 Milliard dollar for the average period (1990-2000), theannual growth rate of 4.37% for the period (1990-2000).The value of the Aggregate Inter - Arab AgriculturalTrade reached 4.55 Milliard dollar for the average period (1990-2000) and the annual growth rate of 6.52% for the period (1990-2000). The fifth section was concerned about measuring thecomparative advantages and estimating its expected effects. Thefirst chapter in section five showed Arab countries comparativeadvantages measurement in its foreign trade for the majoragricultural & food commodities. According to the usedcomparative advantage measurement, it is obvious that, there arethree Arab countries achieved comparative advantages for itsgrain foreign trade during the tested period (1990-2000), thesecountries are Sudan, Syria, Morocco & Egypt. Jordan, Syria,Lebanon Egypt, Yemen & Morocco achieved visiblecomparative advantages in its potato foreign trade during thesame tested period. Egypt & Sudan registered a comparativeadvantage in its crude sugar foreign trade during the mentionedperiod. Sudan, Syria Lebanon and Morocco achieved acomparative advantage in its legume foreign trade, as forvegetable oils, Jordan, Tunisia, Sudan & Lebanon achievedcomparative advantage in its vegetable oils foreign trade for thetested period. Seven Arab countries achieved visible comparativeadvantages of its fresh vegetable crop foreign trade during thesame tested period they are Jordan, Tunisia, Sudan, Syria,Lebanon, Egypt & Morocco. Eight Arab countries achieved acomparative advantage in its fresh fruit foreign trade for thesame tested period. These countries are Jordan, Tunisia AlgeriaSudan, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt & Morocco. Sudan Syria andMorocco registered a comparative advantage of its Red meatforeign trade during the tested period (1990-2000). Fourcountries achieved a comparative advantage of its poultary(white meat) foreign trade (Jordan, Tunisia, Lebanon, Egypt).Four Arab countries achieved visible compartive advantage of itsmilk these countries are: (Sudan Syria, Egypt and Morocco.Eleven Arab countries achieved visible comparative advantageof its fresh fish foreign trade these countries are: U.A.E.,Bahrain, Tunisia, Algeria, Djibouti, Saudi Arabia, Sudan Oman,Morocco Mauritania and Yemen.The second chapter surveyed the expected economiceffects of the complete execution of Arab common marketagreement of the agricultural sector in the Arab nation. A modelwas designed of eleven equations in order to compute andestimate Arab net profit or loss as a result of complete executionof Arab common market agreement. The Arab commonmarketcountries, the most beneficiary will reach to 2960.9 milionsdollar. Three Arab countries will get reach to 8855 milliondollar. In case of the full applications of the Arab commonmarket agreement. Sundan is considered the most been ficicaryArab contry total gains of 3314.g million dollar, Egypt comes asthe second beneficary country with 1253 million dollar, moroccowith 1401, Syria with 1081, Mauritania with 468.8 million dollarSomalia with 452.9 million dollar, Tunisia with 376.4 milliondollar, Lebanon with 342.3 million dollar, Algeria with 158.6million dollar Yemen will gain 107.6 million dollar, Jordan with51.5 million dollar, and U.A.E will gain 38.4 million dollar, andSaudi Arabia with 9.3 million dollar, oman with 7.2 milliondollar, Finally, Bahain will gain, 6 million dollar. Three Arabcountries will get net tosses after the full implementation of theArab common market agreement. Kuwait will have 64.5 milliondollar losses. Qatar will get 32.4 million dollar losses Djiboutiwill get 16 million dollar losses. And lLibya willget 1.5 milliondollar. The net gains after the implementation of the agreementwill reach to 8855 million dollar.RECOMMENDA TIONS• Spending there glutinous needed for accelerating theestablishment of the Arab common market and givingpriority of the Arab common market as the most importantArab project in the Arab arena.• Following gradual procedure in joining the Arab commonmarket and agreement.• Eliminating Arab political conflicts and dominating theeconomic interest.• Finalizing the residual stages of the grand Arab free zone.• Establishing the Arab agricultural marketing corporationunder the framework of Arab economic union council.• Coordinating Arab foreign trade policy.• Encouraging inter-Arab agricultural investment in the fieldof marketing and trading infrastructure.• Developing and supporting Arab trade financing program.• Establishing Arab marketing and commercial informationnet and adapting modern communication methods.• Implementing a long-term comprehensive Arab economicdevelopment plan for the Arab agricultural sector.• Establishing Arab Marketing and Commercial InfnnationNet.• Stimulating private sector in the Arab countries to share inthe Arab common market and encouraging the support ofArab economic development programs.