| Abstract |
Egypt has recently been seeking to adopt a food policy that would raise the level of protein nutrition as one of the important measures of the level of progress and people's well-being. The state's plans aim to achieve self-sufficiency in food commodities as much as possible. The problem of the study is the inadequacy of the local production of red meat to meet the consumption needs, which leads to an increase in imports of the commodity and, consequently, to an increase in the burden of the cost of importing it from abroad, and consequently an increase in the deficit in the trade balance and thus negatively affecting the balance of payments. The study aims to identify the current and future conditions of red meat production and consumption in Egypt and study the most important factors affecting both production and consumption and forecasting them until 2027, in order to help decision makers, develop plans and programs aimed at reducing the gap and increasing production.
The results showed that the local production of red meat during the period (2000-2019) took an increasing general trend, amounting to about 6.97 thousand tons, while the results showed that the available for consumption took an increasing general trend that proved statistically significant at a significant level of 0.01 and the rate of increase reached The annual rate is about 35,31 thousand tons, with an annual change rate of about 2.94 from the annual average during the same period. Statistical estimates of the nutritional gap of red meat indicated that there is a general increasing trend that proves its statistical significance at a significant level of 0.01 and the annual increase rate reached about 28,33 thousand tons, which represents about 2.94% of the average nutritional gap of red meat. And about the development of the self-sufficiency rate of red meat, the equation of the general time trend indicated that there is a general decreasing trend, which has been statistically significant at a significant level of 0.01, and the annual decrease rate has reached about 1.5 thousand tons, which represents about 1.98% of the average percentage of red meat. Self-sufficiency in red meat.
The results of predicting the future situation of production and consumption of red meat indicated a decrease in red meat production from 717 thousand tons in 2019 to 688.89 thousand tons, a decrease of 28.11 thousand tons in 2027, while the consumed quantity of red meat increased from about 1162 thousand tons in 2019 to about 1901.37 thousand tons, an increase of 739.37 thousand tons in 2027.
The results showed that the local production of white meat during the period from (2000-2019) took an increasing general trend, and its significance was statistically proven at a significant level of 0.01 by about 38,84 thousand tons, with an annual change rate of about 3.52% of the annual average during the period. While, the results showed that the available for consumption took an increasing general trend, its statistical significance was proven at 0.01 level, and the annual increase rate amounted to about 44.71 thousand tons, with an annual change rate of about 3.92 from the annual average during the same period. Statistical estimates of the nutritional gap of white meat indicated that there is a general increasing trend that proves its statistical significance at a significant level of 0.01 and the annual increase rate reached about 5.57 thousand tons, which represents about 16.64% of the average nutritional gap of white meat. As for the development of the self-sufficiency rate of white meat, a general decreasing trend, its significance was statistically proven at a significant level of 0.01, and the annual rate of decrease amounted to about 0.38 thousand tons, which represents about 0.39% of the self-sufficiency rate of white meat.
The results of forecasting the future status of white meat production and consumption also indicated an increase in white meat production in Egypt from 1,752 thousand tons in 2019 to about 3,615 thousand tons in 2027, with an estimated increase of 1863 thousand tons. Panama The quantity consumed of white meat increased from 1825 in 2019 to about 4,458 thousand tons in 2027, an increase of 2,633 thousand tons.
Recommendations:
10- Working to increase production through the numerical and quantitative increase in the heads of farm animals, through the national project for veal, with its two parts, local and imported, which preserves animal wealth and works to provide many job opportunities while offering good meat to the markets at fair prices for both the breeder and the consumer.
11- Acquisition of good breeds because they are distinguished by good genetic factors, and by giving them their nutritional needs, their genetic efficiency is shown and maximum production is given. As for low breeds, they must be disposed of.
12- Providing and improving green fodder
13- The use of agricultural waste and by-products as food for animals after chemical, mechanical and biological treatment by following the new methods of biological treatment, which is the cultivation of green fodder throughout the year using agricultural residues without soil, where agricultural waste is collected and used as a medium for the germination of barley grains, which is characterized by its high nutritional value and high content of protein, its short agricultural cycle, its low production costs, its low need for water, and its ease of cultivation.
14- Increasing the production of green fodder by expanding the cultivation of Egyptian alfalfa in the valley and delta, expanding the cultivation of Hijazi alfalfa in marginal and reclaimed lands, and expanding the cultivation of forage crops with a comparative advantage in marginal lands such as sisban, jawar and mashaw.
15- Working to increase production by providing technical and financial support to young poultry breeders to raise the efficiency and modify their housing from the open system to the closed system, which maximizing poultry production per unit area while, reducing the mortality rate to a minimum and improving feed conversion rates.
16- Applying bio-safety procedures in poultry farms and hatchery plants through preventive managerial programs and taking all necessary measures to ensure the quality of the birds’ health status.
17- Expanding the import of broiler parents, improving transformational efficiency, and developing care and breeding methods.
18- Providing fodder mixtures for various productive purposes according to scientific bases while trying to reduce their production costs by relying on what is available in the local environment of foodstuffs and benefiting from all remnants of oil factories and mills, with a focus on cultivating feed grain crops such as maize and working to raise the acre yield thereof. In addition to exempting feed ingredients from any customs duties.
19- Increasing the benefit from the use of molecular biology techniques to increase the rates of genetic improvement and the use of these techniques in determining the genetic maps of Egyptian strains to identify their potential and the possibility of developing Egyptian strains that are resistant to some diseases and have high production efficiency.
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